译文:怎样知道经济何时好转
译者：east 时间:2009-02-11
经济变坏了。上一季度GDP下降了3.8％，专家们认为这一季度的下降会更严重。但衰退不会永远持续下去，我们将会在官方的统计数字证明之前就会摆脱这次衰退。这就是它的运行方式。许多经济数据——如分季度的GDP数——都是迟到的指标。你需要的是能标志我们何时能有转机的先导性指标。
到目前为止，还很少有迹象表明波谷即将到来。但随着这次衰退进入第二个年头，开始寻找一些复苏的征兆并不算太早。早期的线索可能会带点儿轶闻性质——你不得不在离商场入口更远的地方泊车；你的订约人要经过更长时间才会给你回话。真正的证据将随之而来。这里有10项指标帮助你了解日子什么时候会变好。
1、住宅销售
我们的麻烦开始于此也将终止于此。房市任何程度的活跃都将是我们开始好转的信号。一些如消费者新闻与商业频道的詹姆士.克拉姆一样的学者，以及倍受尊敬的穆迪经济网的学者们，正为今年下半年的波谷而鼓与呼。但目前还没有太多可乐观的东西。“还有大量未出售的现有的和新建的过剩住宅。”汤姆森金融公司的首席经济学家杰弗里.霍尔说。他正在关注全国住房建筑商协会量度近期销售、预期销售和预计买主数量的住宅市场指数。这一指数达到了历史最低点：8（以100为基准，处于50－60是正常的）。更有甚者，这一指标的所有3项构成指标，都在12月份达到了历史最低点。如果这一指标本年内恢复到20，他就会开始觉察出有一个良好转机——即使只是预计买主数量推动了这一指数变得更高。“指数升得越快，”霍尔说，“我敢说我们挣脱衰退的速度赶快。”
2. 工作
就业状况是一大灾难。自衰退开始已来，我们已失去了360万个工作岗位。1月份，私营部门的周平均工作小时数停在了33.3小时的最低记录上，并且，因为公司典型的在裁员之前减少工作小时数的做法，这一数字的下滑意味着更多的失业即将来临。期待着这一数字稳定2或3个月，然后一点点儿上升，成为经济好转的一个早期信号。在长时期内，我们不会遇到一个在35左右的正常读数。但关键是要改变数字变化的方向。你可以在劳工统计局网站找到私营部门的周平均工作小时数.
3.还是工作
就业恢复是至关重要的。这里是第二个经济学家们正在关注的与工作有关的指标：每月临时雇工数。“公司会经常要求雇员干活的时间延长一点，”经济展望集团首席全球经济学家伯纳德.鲍莫尔说：“但当他们开始雇人的时候，你就会知道有些东西快来了，临时雇佣通常恰恰就在长期雇佣之前采用。”2002年， 临时雇佣从净失业期延续到净就业期，几乎直到衰退结束的那个月份。此时此刻，临时雇佣月变化数已经连续25个月保持负数了。当它转回正数的时候，你可以相信好日子将会随之而来。这个数也可以在劳工统计局网站上进行跟踪。
4. 汽车销售
2008年，汽车制造商销售艰难，在经历了年销售量1600万辆左右的几个年头后，新出厂的轿车和卡车销售量跌至1320辆。10、11和12月记录了28年来最差的年度数量等级，分别仅为1050、1010和1030辆。小汽车是消费者开始觉得经济再次好转时购买的最昂贵的商品之一。当新出厂的汽车销售量稳定了——在一定的水平上——并且随之开始弹得更高，这将显示出消费者坚定的信心，他们总体上占了美国经济结构的三分之二。“只是担心目前的形势会使消费者踌躇不前，”帕西克财务管理公司首席经济学家詹姆士.史密斯说：“他们有钱——净值56.5万亿美元——并且可供应的产品都很诱人，价格也公道。”他们只需要开始对经济状况和自己的财务前景感觉好一点儿就行了。
5. 商品零售
一月份，商品零售连续第七个月下降，当那条线倒转过来的时候，它就转换成正号了。但更为重要的是从诸如沃尔玛、多乐一类的折扣店向诸如诺德斯特龙、塞克斯一类的专卖店或高端店的转换。“那将是消费者开始觉得总体经济特别是他们自己的财务前景变好的信号。”德克萨斯州奥斯丁“房产经营”金融公司首席经济学家理查德.穆迪说。你可以在人口普查网上追踪商品零售状况。但也许关注一下每月比较沃尔玛和诺德斯特龙销售趋势的财务报告更有用。谁会比预期做得更好或是更坏呢？去年大约都是沃尔玛的事迹。注意变化。
6.利率增长
暗示着信用冻结融化的适度信号已经开始出现。但借贷信用仍然保持在混乱的状态。考虑一下这种差异：10年期国债，目前的利息3％左右，而通常的10年期企业债券现在利息为7％左右。4个百分点的价差是最近几周从6个百分点的价差缩减来的。但仍然是通常情况下的2倍。从历史上看，不同有价证券间较大的信用价差倾向于接近时，就暗示着借贷人——当然，除了美国政府——将有更大的困难得到资金。当信用价差越过了那个狭窄的区域，它指示着资金又流动起来了，这是一个重要的进展。但国民城市公司首席经济学家理查德.德卡塞说，在价差充分变小前，不要太兴奋。甚至刚才提到的4个百分点的公债利息价差，也是衰退期的典型价差水平。当我们恢复到2点的差异水平时，他才会松一口气。同样，也许更容易追踪，要关注大额住房抵押贷款，它现在已超出标准类抵押贷款1.5个百分点，这种差异要缩小到0.5点之内。
7. 意大利面指标
意大利面是一种廉价食品，销售量正直线上升，冲破了屋顶——经过了一年的温和增长，2008年上升了22％，根据尼尔森公司的调查，增长的大部分应归于相关日用品价格的增长。但这种趋势还意味着意大利面占据了大众食品篮中大部分位置。当意大利面的销售开始减慢的时候，你就会知道日子正在变好。追踪这个趋势的方法之一是查看美国意大利面公司（简写：AIPC）的财务成果，这家公司是北美最大的意大利面生产商。在过去的12个月里，公司股票从5美元飞涨到26美元,而其它东西都遭受了打击。2008年，税收猛长了43％，达5.69亿美元——过去的3年经过了衰减或只是温和的增长。当这个逆潮流而动的意大利面循环生产者陷入了困境，就向我们这些人发出了好日子的信号。
8.纸板指标
艾伦.格林斯潘喜欢跟踪箱板纸的价格。想法很简单：箱板纸是纸板的主要用料，纸板被用作包装材料装运各种东西。当箱板纸的价格增长了，就意味着对包装材料有需求，如果人们正在买东西，这种需求就是一个好例证，反过来表明了一种健康的经济状况。同样的需求也在不断增长：象伯尼.马多夫一样所谓的的金融罪犯们，在去法院的路上，就是用这类材料遮挡他们的小汽车窗户的。但纸板正处在一个猛跌的市场中。制造箱子的原料价格处在自由落体状态，据《官方纸板市场》总编马克.亚尔佐马尼安说，1月份每吨价格已从9月份的115美元降到了25美元。当价格调高的时候，则意味着人们又在买东西了。箱板纸不容易追踪。作为替代，你要时刻关注最主要的箱板纸生产商斯莫菲特－斯通包装用品公司（简称：SSCC）的股票，以及国际纸业公司（IP）的股票。他们的股票在这次衰退前就开始跌了，在恢复开始之前，将会涨起来。
9.甜言蜜语的信用卡公司
很难想象会有友好的信用卡公司，特别是通过收取18％或更高年息的已经“自肥”并“过着舒适生活”的信用卡公司。但是忧心忡忡的信用卡公司对正在挣扎的债务人已经明显变得友好了。最大的信用卡公司即将放弃收取费用，重组债务，甚至接受小到1美分的清算。他们做这些不是想做个好人，他们是要努力撑住拖欠的连续风潮，并想要马上收来尽可能多的款项——在别的信用卡公司之前最先来到你身边，把你的口袋掏空。当信用卡公司停止和债务人谈判时，你就会知道经济恢复平稳了。监视这一行业的情况，请查看信用卡网。
10.电影狂热
好莱坞经常生产落后于时代几步的电影, 这意味着，由于这次衰退至今有一周年了，我们几乎可以肯定，2009年会看到一批“回到基本要素”的电影——象刚刚推出的蕾妮·齐薇格主演的《小镇新人》，表现的是一个女商人的故事，她移居到了农村，发现了一种简朴的生活方式。但好莱坞的故事情节想把经济拉进什么地方，成群的影迷就想把经济领出那个地方。因此，去年售票数下降了4％，影迷们共同得出了结论，由于资金这样紧张，他们最好利用好高保真家庭影院系统。注意那种潮流的变化。如果售票持续增加，那只不过意味着有一些大片推出了——或者恰恰是经济好转了。你可以到票房网查看从年到日的电影票销售比较情况。
原文:How To Know When The Economy is Turning Up
发现者:sunyinguk 来源:
http://www.time.com 发布时间:2009-02-11 类型:转载
The economy stinks. GDP fell 3.8% last quarter and experts believe the decline this quarter will be even worse. But recessions don't last forever, and we'll be coming out of this one long before official statistics say so. That's just the way it works. Most economic data — like the quarterly GDP reading — are lagging indicators. What you need are leading indicators that will signal when we've made a turn.
So far, there's been little evidence to suggest a bottom is at hand. But with this recession well into its second year it's not too early to start looking for signs of a recovery. The earliest clues will be anecdotal — you have to park farther from the mall entrance; your contractor takes longer to return your calls. Real evidence would follow. Here are 10 indicators to help you know when times are getting better
1. Home Sales
This is where our troubles began and this is where they should end. Any perking up in the housing market would be a signal that we're on the mend. Some pundits like CNBC's James Cramer and the highly regarded researchers at Moody's Economy.com are calling for a bottom the second half of this year. But there isn't a lot more to be optimistic about right now. "There's still a tremendous excess of unsold homes, both new and existing," says Jeoffrey Hall, chief U.S. economist for Thomson Financial. He's watching the National Association of Home Builders House Market Index, which measures recent sales, expected sales, and prospective buyer traffic. The index is at an all-time low: 8 (on a scale of 100, where 50-60 is normal). Further, all three components of the index hit an all-time low in December. He'll start to feel better about a recovery if the index gets back to 20 this year — even if it's only prospective buyer traffic that pushes the index higher. "The faster it rises," says Hall, "the faster I'd say we're emerging from recession."
2. Jobs
The employment scene is a disaster. We've shed 3.6 million jobs since the recession began. Private sector average weekly hours worked stuck at a record low 33.3 hours in January, and because companies typically cut hours before cutting heads the slide means more layoffs are coming. Look for this number to stabilize over a period of two or three months and then begin to inch upward for an early indicator that the economy is recovering. We won't hit a normal reading of around 35 hours for a long time. But the key is to just change the direction. You can find private sector average weekly hours worked on the Bureau of Labor Statistics web site.
3. Jobs (again)
A recovery in employment is crucial. So here's a second job-related indicator that economists are watching: monthly temporary employment. "Companies can always ask their employees to work a little longer," says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group. "But when they start hiring you know something is going on, and temporary hiring typically picks up well before permanent hiring." In 2002, temporary hiring went from net job losses to net job gains almost to the month that the recession ended. At this moment, the monthly change in temporary employment has been negative for 25 months running. When it swings positive you can be sure that better times will follow. This can be tracked on the BLS web site as well.
4. Car Sales
Automakers had a rough go of it in 2008, when sales of new cars and trucks fell to 13.2 million units after several years of selling 16-million plus. October, November and December registered the worst annualized rates in 28 years at just 10.5 million, 10.1 million and 10.3 million vehicles, respectively. Cars are one of the first big-ticket items that consumers buy when they start to feel good again. When new vehicle sales stabilize — at any level — and then start to tick higher it will provide a solid read on the mood of consumers, who collectively are two-thirds of the economy. "It's only fear that's holding consumers back," says James Smith, chief economist at Parsec Financial Management. "They have money — $56.5 trillion of net worth — and the products available are attractive and well priced." They just need to start feeling a little better about the economy and their financial future.
5. Retail Sales
For the seventh consecutive month, retail sales fell in January. When that string reverses it will be a positive sign. But more important will be any shift away from discounters like Wal-Mart and Dollar General towards specialty or higher end stores like Nordstrom or Saks. "That would be a sign consumers are starting to feel better about the economy in general and their own prospects in particular," says Richard Moody, chief economist at financial firm Mission Residential in Austin, Texas. You can track retail sales at
www.census.gov. But it might be just as useful to pay attention to monthly financial reports, comparing the trend at Wal-Mart with the trend at Nordstrom. Who's doing better or worse than expected? The last year or so has been a Wal-Mart story. Watch for a shift.
6. Interest Rate Spreads
Modest signs have begun to emerge suggesting that the credit freeze is thawing. But borrowing rates remain way out of whack. Consider the difference between the 10-year Treasury bond, currently yielding around 3%, and a typical 10-year corporate bond now yielding around 7%. That spread of 4 percentage points has narrowed from 6 percentage points in recent weeks but still is double what's typical. Historically wide credit spreads between securities that tend to track closely suggests that borrowers — other than the U.S. government, anyway — are having great difficulty getting funds. When credit spreads across the spectrum narrow it will signal that money is flowing again, a critical development. But Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp., says not to get too excited until spreads narrow substantially. Even a 4-percentage point spread in the bond yields just mentioned is a level typical of recessions. He'll exhale when we get back to a 2-point difference. Also, and perhaps easiest to follow, look for jumbo mortgages which are now about 1.5 percentage points above conforming mortgages to close to within half a point.
7. The Pasta Indicator
Pasta is a cheap meal, and sales are shooting through the roof — rising 22% in 2008 after years of tepid growth, according to Nielsen Co. Much of the increase is due to commodities related price hikes. But the trend still means that pasta is claiming a larger portion of the average grocery basket. When pasta sales begin to slow you'll know times are getting better. One way to track the trend is by watching financial results at American Italian Pasta Co. (ticker: AIPC), which is North America's largest pasta producer. The stock has soared from $5 to $26 in the past 12 months while just about everything else got hammered. Revenue surged 43% to $569 million in 2008 — after declining or growing only modestly the previous three years. When this counter cyclical pasta packer hits a rough patch it could signal better times for the rest of us.
8. The Cardboard Indicator
Alan Greenspan was fond of tracking liner board prices. The idea is simple: liner board is a main component of cardboard, which is used as packaging to ship just about everything. When liner board prices surge it means that packaging is in demand, which can only be the case if people are buying things, which in turn signals a healthy economy. Demand of a sort is already ticking higher: alleged financial criminals like Bernie Madoff using the stuff to cover their car window on the way to court. But cardboard is in a deadly bear market. Prices for the raw material used to make boxes are in freefall, having hit $25 a ton in January from $115 in September, according to Mark Arzoumanian, Editor-in-Chief at Official Board Markets. When the price turns up it will mean people are shopping again. Liner board isn't easy to track. As a proxy, keep your eye on the stock price of leading cardboard producers Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (ticker: SSCC) and International Paper (IP). Their shares began falling before the recession started and could turn higher before the recovery begins.
9. Sweet-Talking Bill Collectors
It's hard to imagine a friendly bill collector, especially one that has gotten fat and comfortable by charging annual interest of 18% or more for years. But worried credit card companies have become downright hospitable to struggling debtors. The big card companies are waiving fees, restructuring debt and even accepting payoffs of as little as pennies on the dollar. They're not doing this to be good guys; they are bracing for a continued wave of defaults and want to collect as much as they can right now — before some other bill collector gets to you first and leaves you with empty pockets. You'll know the economy is righting itself when credit card companies stop negotiating with debtors. To monitor this industry, check out creditcard.com.
10. Movie Madness
Hollywood often produces movies that are a couple steps behind the times, meaning that with the recession now a year old we're almost certain to see a batch of back-to-basics storylines in 2009 — like the just released New In Townercboxoffice.com. starring Renee Zellweger, which is the story of a business woman who moves to a rural area and discovers a simple life. But where Hollywood storylines tend to lag the economy, movie goers as a group tend to lead the economy. So it was that the number of tickets sold dropped 4% last year, when film buffs collectively concluded that with money so tight they might as well make better use of their high-def home theater system. Watch for that trend to reverse. If movie ticket sales increase on a sustained basis (they were up a bit in January), it could mean nothing more than that there have been some blockbuster films released — or just maybe that the economy is getting better. You can check for year-to-date movie ticket sales comparisons at
http://treasure.1x1y.com.cn/useracticles/20090211/20090211083014615-6135.html
