Maps: Where the Wuhan Coronavirus Has Spread
By K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jin Wu and Allison McCannUpdated Jan. 23, 2020
The Wuhan coronavirus has sickened more than 600 people in Asia and at least one person in the United States, according to official counts. Other cases have probably gone unreported so far. As of Thursday, at least 18 people have died.
The outbreak began in a seafood and poultry market in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China. But which animal is the source of the virus and how many people are at risk remain unclear. The virus can spread from person to person, according to a prominent Chinese scientist, but it is not known how easily.
How big could the outbreak be?
Researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimate that the number of cases may be five or 10 times higher than what has been reported.
The most likely number is around 4,000 cases, according to the estimates, which will change as more information about the virus becomes known.
These estimates are based on an analysis of the population of Wuhan, the number of cases detected outside of China and the number of people who travel from Wuhan to other areas. Public health officials still do not know how the disease is transmitted, and experts urged caution in interpreting the estimates.
“These are very early models that make several assumptions based on what evidence is available,” said David Heymann, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “They aren’t truth — they’re just one step in trying to better understand this outbreak.”